“Diplomatic War” between the Russian Federation and the West: Do the consequences for Moscow?

The deepening of the “diplomatic war” between the countries of the West and Russia, which is observed today, in the short term is unlikely to lead to a significant strengthening of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation and accelerating the solution of the so -called. “Ukrainian question”. The recently diplomatic scandal between the United Kingdom and Russia will try to use the Russian leadership in their own intra- and geopolitical interests, traditionally continuing the “Game on rates” in order to delay the event to produce a compromise acceptable for the Russian Federation.

Despite the unprecedented measures of most Western countries in the diplomatic sphere, which have been manifested in the development of a large number of Russian diplomats from the territory of their states, the real strengthening of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation is under doubt. Among the main reasons for this conclusion are the following:

• A number of European Union member states are not interested in the final break of economic relations with Russia because of the significant dependence of their economic systems on the Russian Federation; a number of European Union member countries are not interested in the final break of economic relations with Russia because of the significant dependence of their economic systems on the Russian Federation;
• In some countries, the EU continues to function with a rather influential pro-Russian lobby, which is able to block any decision to strengthen the sanction pressure on the Russian Federation;
• Western leaders are not ready for radical steps towards the Russian Federation because of the high risks of unbalanced the world security system and starting irreversible processes in Russia itself.

The President of the Russian Federation and his immediate surroundings are well aware that through the implementation of the current foreign policy of problems in Russia is becoming increasingly, and they need to be solved in some way. At the same time, the Russian system of power is built in such a way that V. Putin does not take any steps that can be regarded by the Russian population as “weakness” or “inability to withstand the pressure of the event.” This is especially relevant, given the use of the leader of the Russian Federation. “Ural-patriotic” rhetoric during the 2018 election campaign. The President of the Russian Federation and his immediate surroundings are well aware that through the implementation of the current foreign policy of problems in Russia is becoming increasingly, and they need to be solved in some way. At the same time, the Russian system of power is built in such a way that V. Putin does not take any steps that can be regarded by the Russian population as “weakness” or “inability to withstand the pressure of the event.” This is especially relevant, given the use of the leader of the Russian Federation. “Ural-patriotic” rhetoric during the 2018 election campaign.

Considering this, it should be expected that the situation in Russia’s relations with the West, headed by the UK, will be used by the Kremlin in the following areas:

• Increasing anti -Western rhetoric within the Russian Federation, which in turn will be used to justify unpopular steps in various fields, in particular in the budget, social and military;
• delaying the process of resolving the conflict in the Donbass, in particular in the context of reaching a compromise on the issue of the introduction of the UN peacekeeping forces;
• intensification of work on deepening the political and economic cooperation of the Russian Federation with China and India, which usually occupy neutral positions on resonant events in the world; – the next increased accents on Russia’s nuclear potential, “with the idea of ​​which should be considered”;
• the next increased accents on Russia’s nuclear potential, “with the idea of ​​which should be considered”;
• Purposeful strengthening of the “split” in the Western countries, primarily among the European Union Member States, by speculation on “US and Britain’s pressure on other Western powers in order to achieve its own geopolitical interests.”

In order to achieve the above goals and the implementation of the tasks, in addition to traditional propaganda media in the Russian Federation and individual Western powers, the Kremlin will actively use various Russian “scientific” and “analytical” structures such as the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, the Russian Council on International Affairs, the Fund of World Policy, and the Council of Studies. “Highly qualified political scientists and international experts”.

Boris Uvarov,

Expert of the Polissya Fund of International and Regional Research