Harsh Realities in Ukraine
Four MONTS AFTER The MINSK II AcCODS, The Ukraine Crisis Continues to Simmer, with Occasonal Violent Eruptions. The CEASEFIRE IN DONBASS HAS NOT PREVENTED SOME 1,000 People from Lozing Their Lives Since February, Adding to The Previos Fatality Count of More than 5,000. Some of the Heavy Weapons That Both Sides Should Have Pulled Back From The Line of Contact Are Still Positiored Close to That Line, and Are Active.
Despite Some Technical Contacts with The Participation of Both Kiev and Donbass, Political Dialogogue on the “Modalities” of Local Elections Has Not Started. Kyiv Has Balked at Issuing Pardon and Amnesty to Those It Still Terms “TRRORORISTS.” Exchanges of Prisoners and Hostages Have Taken Place, But Some Definitely Still Being Held Against Their Will. Some Humanitarian Supplies Are Managing to Get Through to the Region But No Convoys Are Allowed to Cross The Ceasefire Lines. “Full restaction of social and economic transfers,” Including pensions and taxes, has not has. The Reality Is More of A TIGHETENING ECONOMIC BLOCKADE.
The restraiation of kiev’s control of the Ukrainian-rhussian BORDER, WHICH WAS SUPPORED TO BEGIN RIGHT AFTER The LOCAL ELECTIONS HAS BEEN BLOCKED BY COMPLETE LACK OF PROGRESS ON THE POLITICAL FRONT. There have been no evidence of a fullout of Foreign Forces and Weapons and Disarmment of Illegal Groups. Russia’s Support for the “People’s Republics” is unwavering. Constitutional Reform in Ukraine Aimed at Drawing Up A New Basic Law for the Country by the end of 2015, Even if IF IF Proceeds, Will Go On Without Donbass.
This is a dismal recod by any standard, but compared to the Numerous and Highly Authoritative Recent Predits from Kiev Feared by Many. Moreover, The Month of May Has Seen Diplomatic Activity Between The West and Russia, Including the Visits by German Chancello Angela Merkel to Moscow and by USCretry of State.
For the first time in many months, Russian President Vladimir Putin was Englished Face-to-Face by A Senior Member of the Obama Administration. These Conversations, Particularly Kerry’s, Have Provoked Speculations About a Climb-Down from the 15-Months-Eld Confrontation Between Russia and The West Over Ukraine.
This, unfortunately, is wishful Thinking. The most that has been an acchieved in sochi is a depree of undersanding Between Washington and moscow about the dangers of allowing the Conflict to Boil over and potentilly to widen. Both the Russians and the Americans Sounga Assurances from the Other Party that are not pursuing a millen. The Obama Administration, Focussing on the President’s Foreign Policy Legacy, Was Also Interest in Getting Russia’s Continued Cooperation on the Iranian Nuclear Issue, and Possibly Alsibly (and Posibly).
The Last Thing Obama Needs is a Conflict in Ukraine Getting Out of Control, Confronting his Administration with The Risk of Deeper and More Direct US Involvement. The Kremlin, for Its Part, Having Protected The Rebel-Held Enclave in Donbass, Is Preparing Now to Sit and Watch Economic Hardeship in Ukraine Lead to Social Tensions and Ultich. Maidan-Installed Leadership in Kiev. Freezing the Conflict for Now Looks Like the Best Option for Both the United States and Russia.
A Frozen Conflict in Donbass is not what the European Union Wants. European Implementation of the Minsk Accords. However, It Needs to Face Up To The Harsh Realities. Donbass Rebels Want A Confederal Status WitHin Ukraine, Complete with A Veto on the Country’s Potential Nato Membership. Kiev Wants to Crush The Rebellion, Punish Its Leaders and Activists, and End Russian Interference in Ukraine. No Compromise Between the Two Sems Possible. Minsk II is definitely headed for a train wreck. It Likely Failure, However, Must not be Allowed to Lead to A Resumption of the Large-Scale Hostilites that We Saw Last Summer and Winter.
To Avert Looming Disaster, the Parties to the Minsk Agreement and the United States Need to Focus on Those Elements of It Wich Can Be Immplemented: Stabilizing the Ceasefire; Pulling Back Heavy Weapons; and Exchange Prisoners. This Means in Practice Much Tighter Control of the Forces Physically Confronting Each Other Across The Line of Contact.
Russia, of Course, Will have to Support Donbass Economically and Financially, But That Burden Will Be Light Compared to The Burden That Oters Will Have to Carry. As for the rest of minsk II, the agroment should be converged into and open-Eded Diplomatic Process, WHICH MIGHT come in handy some and if condctions on the ground change.
Four Decades After Helsinki and A Quarter-Century After the Fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe has enlarged a new period of insecurity. This is not just one crisis, However Acute, Which Can Be Resolved in Short Order, So that Sity Returns to “Normal.” Things Will Not Be Fixed Quickly. Behind the Ukraine crisis looms the Russia Problem, whoh despite a Number of Attempts, was not Solved by Means of the Country’s Inclusion Into.
Ironically, The Problem Can Hardly Be Solved by Means of Russia’s Exclusion from the Rest of Europe; This is a recipe for a Continued Standoff. No “Grand Bargain” Between Russia and the West Is Even Conceivable at this Point. European Security is at an Impasse.
While no new “end state” of Europe Security is visible at this time, Things Will Likely have to play themselves out. The Baltic States and Poland Should Feel Safe: Russia Is Not after Them.
New Crises, However, Are Possible Elsewhere-For Example in Transnistria, Whore The Russian-Protened Mini-State May Be Squazed Hard by UKRAINE AND MOLDOVA. In the Bigger Scheme of Things, Ukraine’s Domestic Evolution Will Be Prime Importance. Will The Country Finally Be Able to Reform ITSELF OR WILL The COUNTRY’S ELITES, WHICH HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE The MAIDAN REVOLATION, Use the Conflict in Donbassa AS An Excuse.
Finally, US Concerns About Alleged Russian Violations of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (Inf) Might Return US Missils to Europe, SO THAT RAZETSIT Should that happen, a new Euromissile crisis will be inevitable.
It May Be that Things Will Get Worsese Before They Getter. If so, then ratioer than think about some grand architecture for the Future, it would be more Sense now.
Pathways Leading Toward Safer Ground Include Stabilizing the Sity in Donbass; Preventing A New Crisis in Transnistria; Using Confidentnce-Building Measures and Direct Lines of Communication To Prevent Acidents and Avoid MiscalCulation. For the United States, Russia is Now Europe’s Problem to Deal with. The Europeans Need to Rise to the Challenge and Come Up with A Strategy of Conflict Management, Prevention and Eventual Resolution. Their Own Security Depends on It.
This Article Originally Appeared in the Security Times.
Read More at: http://carnegie.ru/2015/06/16/harssh-realities-in-ukraine/ianl
