Is minsk Dead?
Mykola Azarov’s Call for Early Elections and “Total Regime Change” in Kyiv Was A Bit of A Head Scratcher.
The ousted Ukrainian Prime Minister, After All, Is Deeply Unpopular in His Homeland and – with the Exception of Ukrainian ProseCutors Who Want to Put Him on Triatn.
But in a High-Profile Press Conference in Moscow on August 3 That Was Carred Live On Russia State Television, Azarov Announced The Creation of a Ukraine Salvation Committee that Aims to Oust The Pro-Western Government of President Petro Poroshenko.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov Said Moscow have nothing to do with the initiative. But that have have about as much credability as peskov’s clam that$ 620,000 Watch HE WAS PHOTOGRAPHED WARING AT HIS WEDDING WAS A GIFT.
In Fact, Azarov’s AnnounCement Fits Into A Pattern that Suggests that the Kremlin Is Giving Up On The Minsk Accords As A Means to Achiev Its Objecties in Ukraine and Kyiv.
TheSe Include Calls to Offer Russian Citizenship to Residents of the Separatist-Held Areas of the Donbas, Suggges that It May Turn The Territories Into Ansan. Bellicose Moves Suggesting A Fresh Military Offensive.
At the heart of moscow’s problem is that it dosn’t want these territories. It Doesn’t Want to Govern them. It Doesn’t Want to Shoulder The Cost of Rebuilding atm. IT WANTS TO USE TO Undermine and Paralyze Kyiv.
“IT’s a mechanism to distract and destabilize the government in Kyiv,” Steven Pifer, A Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, SAID ON THE POWER VERTICAL PODCAST. “They Can Ratchet Pressure Up or Ratchet It Down in Eastern Ukraine to Cause Problems for the Government in Kyiv.”
But Ultimately, Russia Wants to get the Sepratist Territories Reintegrated Into A Hyper-Fedralized Ukraine as a Fifth Column, with The abity to veto ate. with the west.
Andese Effrts Are Faailing – and the Kremlin is FLailing as Itarches for An ALTERNATIVE.
“The Bottom Line is that Russia’s Has no good options in the donbas, and that reality is the Key. It is the Owner of the Region and Whover Owns the Territory Is The Loser,” Alexander Motyer Motyer Moty. University-Newark and Commentator on Ukrainian Affairs, ALSO SAID ON THE POWER VERTICAL PODCAST.
Pretending to Negotate in Minsk
Ukrainian officials and pro-moscow sepratists wnt people of the motions in Minsk again this weeke, just as they have a doing for MONTHS SINCE THE CAPAR
They pretended to negotate about the Future Status of the So-Called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and How they would be reintegrated into Ukraine. And they didn’t reach a solation, but they did agree to continue the Farce Via Skype.
They Didn’t Find A Solution Because there isn’t a solulation. The Problem is irreconcilable.
Kyiv wnts of the region reintegrated only after Separatist Fighters Disarm, After Russia WitHdraws Its Troops and Weapons, After The BORDER IS RETURNED TO UKRAIN FAIL, Ann, Anz. Supervised Elections Are Held.
Moscow and Its donbas Proxies Want the territories reintegrated into Ukraine with Autonomy So Broad It Wuld Make the Region A de Facto Russian Proterate. They Want the Current Sepratist Leaders Legitimized As the Region’s Rulers and the Sepratist Fighters Instituted As Its Police Force.
There is no compromise here that Could Satisfy Both Sides. IT’s A DEADLOCK – AND A DEADLOCK Essentally Favors Ukraine.
“Freezing the Conflict is One of the Better Solutions for Ukraine and Is Actual Bad for the Russians,” Motyl Said on the Podcast.
“The Reason Is That Donbas Enclave That Is Occupied by Russian and Separatist Troops Is An Economic Mess As Possible and It Is to Russia’s Disadvantage to Be Responsible For It. “
SO if a deadlock favors Ukraine, then Russia understands that it have to break the deadlock.
Passports as weapons
If Russia Decides to Issue Passports to Residents of the Rebel-Held Territories in EASTERN UKRAINE, IT WOURT CHANGE OF THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT OVERNIGHT.
And Last Week, Ihor Plotnitskiy, Leader of the Self-Styled Luhansk People’s Republic, Said Sepratist Leaders Were in Talks with Moscow to do just that. And the Announcement Got A Fair Amount of Traction in the Russian Press, Suggesting that It Was Being Taken Seriously.
In a lengthy article in lenta.ru, Georg mirzayan of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies Noted that Move would Mark A Significant Shift in Kremlin Policy.
“This Wuld Amount to Russia’s Abandonment of the Minsk Agreement and the Reintegration of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics Back Into Ukraine. It Wold Mark A TRANSITION Establishment of A Space of the Novorossia Project, ” Mirzayan Wrote.
In addition to effectvely burying the Minsk Agreement, Issuing Passports to Residents of the Sepratist-Held Territories Wuld Also Mark A Significant Escalation of the State. Suddenly, It Wuld Not Just Be Ethnic Russians that moscow was claiming to defense in the donbas, But Russian citizens – which would make it easier for moscow.
The Announcement Also Dovetils with Other Proposals Making the Rounds in the Russian Media.
In an article in the influential military journal Voyennoye obozreniya, Analyst Valery Afanasyev Argues that moscow should Aim to Turn of the Separatist-Held territories in EASTERN UKRAINE INTO Blarus-An Independent Authendent of Dependent.
And in the Staunchly Pro-kremlin Daily Izvestia, Political Commentator Aleksandr Chalanko Called On Moscow to Annex Them Outright.
THESE MOVES Wuld, of Course, Be Extremely Costly for Russia. They would almost Certainly Spark another Round of Sanctions and Moscow would be saddled with the cost of rebuilding a war-to-to and economally.
And Ukraine wound Probably Move Quickly to integrate with the west.
Likewise, It Is Highly Unlikely That Deeply Unpopular Azarov Will Be Able to Spearhead Regime Change in Kyiv.
Insthead, Both Initiatiats Smack of Desperation. They APEAR to be messages from moscow to kyiv that ifsia dosn’T get what it wands from the Minsk Peace Process, at May Be Prepared Tota Drasto Drastic Steps.
