Ukraine-Polish: everything will be new but will remain in the old way
Poland’s support during the Russian aggression against Ukraine has become an extremely important and prerequisite for defending Ukraine’s interests in the international arena. With the change of political leadership of Poland, both Polish and Ukrainian experts try to make forecasts of near and long-term prospects of Ukrainian-Polish relations. The Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation also held Express survey among Polish and Ukrainian expertsTo find out what the main surprises, surprises and features carry the results of the Polish presidential elections, as well as whether Poland will remain with the same strong lawyer of Ukraine in the international arena. The results of the study were presented recently, reports the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.
Presenting the results of the study during the discussion “Poland after elections: consequences for Ukraine”, director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation ” Irina Bekeshkina She said: “It was not accidental attention to the Polish elections in Ukraine, because Ukraine does not just need partners, it needs friends. The Foundation interviewed experts from Poland and compared their answers with the answers of experts from Ukraine. The results of this rapid survey showed that Warsaw’s policy on Ukraine during the new President Andrzej Duda will not change. Both Ukrainian and Polish experts are unanimous in this opinion. And this, of course, is a very positive fact. “
At the same time, the sociologist noted that if most Ukrainian experts do not expect changes in Polish foreign policy in the Russian direction, then the opinions of Polish experts on this issue were divided approximately in half: some expect changes, others did not. Those Polish experts who expect changes believe that Poland’s position in relation to the Russian Federation can be much more rigid, less dependent on Berlin and more in the US.
According to the Foundation Director, the survey showed that the main features of the last presidential election in Poland, Polish experts include the result of the antisystem candidate Pavel Kukiz, a sufficiently passive election campaign of Bronislaw Komorovsky and, in fact, his losing. Uraine experts are specific to the fatigue of the Poles from the ruling party, holding elections in the conditions of a special role of foreign policy, the calculation of the “civic platform” regarding the mood of voters and the passive nature of its electoral program.
Polish experts consider the implementation of populist socio-economic promises (taxes, retirement age, retirement age, employment policy).
“Talking about the dangers that can be in relations with Ukraine, there is only one thing – if you raise the events of distant history that we have bloody battles of Ukrainians with the Poles … If these issues are not raised, we do not see other serious obstacles to our relationship,” Irina Bekeshkina stressed.
In turn, the political analyst of the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation Maria Zolkina She noted that today it is extremely important for Ukraine not only to influence the election of a new President of Poland on bilateral relations with Ukraine, but also how it will affect the position of the Polish state within the European Union. “For the European Union, unity is now more important for the Ukrainian issue,” the analyst explains his opinion. – This unity is important for the Ukrainian issue for Ukraine itself. However, it is largely provided by consensus, which is actually the result of very difficult political negotiations. Actually, the fact that the exit is a consensus, most likely in the EU is simply a political compromise. In this sense, since 2007, it was very important that a sufficiently constructive cooperation was established between conditionally old and conditionally new EU member countries, which was largely one of the trends of the ruling policy in Poland. At the same time, the “right and justice”, represented by the newly elected President of Poland Andrzej Duda is largely the Eurosptic Party, which insists on the stringent policy of Poland as part of the European Union integration association. ” Maria Zolkina suggested that this Euroscepticism can affect Poland’s policy within the EU, and surprises are possible along the lines of political relations of Warsaw-Berlin.
Instead, the Deputy Director of World Policy Institute Catherine Zarembo He believes that the Euroscepticism of the Andzeya Party Duda should not be overestimated. She noted that the new Polish President Andrzej Duda really belongs to a party characterized by certain European skepticism, and in particular in his election statements, he spoke of reformatting relations with Germany, bringing a new level of relations with the United States, and therefore a region of the region. At the same time, the expert says, it should be remembered that the Polish president, although Poland is a representative of the international arena, still has only representative functions, and it will be possible to talk about changing Poland’s foreign policy only after the parliamentary elections that will take place in the fall. Catherine Zarembo also noted that in Poland there are some feelings of problems in pragmatic relations with Germany, in Germany, such feelings are not seen. This is evident “This can be regarded as a call for cooperation, and Poland will answer this request as a country of Europe,” the expert is convinced.
Regarding possible measurements of cooperation with Ukraine, according to Catherine Zarembo, the most interesting point will be who will become a new speaker in Ukraine in Poland. “If it was so faced who was Bronislav Komorovsky,” the expert says, “now, a few months before the parliamentary elections, it will be interesting to see if his place will take his place as a key peroidist with Ukraine … Secondly, from all possible formats that are now in international dimension with Ukraine. It was he who referred to Duda and representatives of “law and justice” when they spoke of the sort of the Polish state. The Polish politicum is perceived by the fact that Poland, the chief lawyer of EU EU, has been excluded from this peacekeeping format. And it is unknown whether Poland will try to get into this format at all, but its exclusion from the “Norman format” can not be overlooked, ” – stated Catherine Zarembo.
President of the Polissya Fund of International and Regional Research Gennady Maxak I am also convinced that before the election of a new government, it is not necessary to expect dramatic changes, in addition, it is not yet clear whether Andrzej Duda has become a new “face” in politics whether it is a new “head” of Poland.
“It is very difficult to understand whether Andrzej Duda is an independent politician,” the expert says. – Everyone says that he is a creature of Yaroslav Kaczynski, who is the leader of the Law and Justice Party. Whether it will be able to generate a separate policy, that is, to be a “head” of the country, whether it will simply be a “face” that will use more powerful in its influential Yaroslav Kaczynski, time will tell. The second thing to see whether this president will be with the Portfolio, whether it will remain a “wedding general”. After all, the elections of Parliament, Parliament will choose members of the government, which will resolve all the urgent issues of foreign policy. There is a certain piece of functions performed by the President, but if there is no support of the party, it will be more important for the “wedding general”, a president who has no sufficient support, “Gennady Maxak explained.
The expert also noted that Andrzej Duda, in his opinion, would stand in the positions of settling the eastern direction in the EU: “It was the Kachinsky brothers before the beginning of the Eastern Partnership who paid much attention to such an association as GUAM, – said Exprit. – When the organization did not produce positive results, both Ukraine and Georgia was denied a plan for NATO membership, a new concept of Eastern Partnership was developed, which Kaczynski and Donald Tusk was developed and promoted jointly. That is, in this sense, Andrzej Duda will stand in the positions of the concept of eastern direction in the EU, ”the expert is convinced. The next direction of foreign policy may be the creation of a sub -regional security or economic miniisa within the EU. “In Poland, they are increasingly talking about why Central Europe is not heard. These can be the countries of the Visegrad group, plus the Baltic country, plus Romania. And such an association will have some impact in making EU policy decisions, ”Gennady Maxak stressed.
The fact that Poland will not change the geopolitical course against the Ukrainian state, the Polish correspondent “Gazeta Wyborcza” is convincedPiot Andrusechko.
According to him, after the results of the parliamentary elections that will take place in Poland in the fall, it will be possible to talk about how the foreign and internal policy of this country will change. “In general, there are two components of Poland’s foreign policy: the first – regarding the European Union, the second is about the situation in eastern Ukraine. But despite all the changes in the echelons of power, Poland cannot change the geopolitical course on Ukraine because it remains our closest neighbor, ”P. Andrusechko stated.
According to the journalist, moments of tension may appear with the arrival of a new harness. Again, the issues of history, the theme of the OUN-UPA … “But it is not necessary to be afraid,” explains Piotr Andrusechko,-it is necessary, on the contrary, to study these topics, to speak them, because if we do not understand this, it can always be used by someone else. After all, we have such a neighbor (Russia – Ed.), Who is interested in using it in his interest, ”the journalist says. He also noted that he did not share the optimism of some Ukrainian experts in connection with the election of Polish President Andrzej Duda. “I do not know how pro -Ukrainian he is. For example, the previous President of Poland was pro -Ukrainian if you can say so. Poland cannot pursue an independent foreign policy because we are an EU and NATO member. And this is very well visible during the last conflict in eastern Ukraine, when we see that Poland is essentially not among those intermediaries who try to resolve this conflict in some ways. This is a position that is a certain arrangement. Poland has accepted such a role because it realized that the most levers of influence on the EU remain in other countries. But there are also optimistic forecasts. Polish politicians have a clear understanding, including within the close political environment of Andrzej Duda, that we need to act together in eastern Ukraine, ”he said.
Supported his colleague and Polish publicist, Kultura Liberalna Magazine journalist, Newsweek Polska Lukash Yasina. During a direct video clip with Warsaw, he confirmed that Poland’s policy for Ukraine would not change in the next months. “As Polish presidents supported Ukraine so far, so they will support it in the future,” the journalist is convinced. – But there is another question: what will change in Polish policy on the European Union? This will be shown by the first gestures that Andrzej Duda will perform. If his first presidential visit to Brussels will mean that there will be no changes in Poland’s policy on the European Union. There is another to remember. In Poland, the results of the parliamentary elections will be much more important. They will also show what changes in the plan of the domestic and foreign policy of Poland, “-summed up Lukash Yasin, adding:” Everything will be new, but it will remain in the old way. “