“Summit Ukraine-EU: Expectations and Consequences”

The Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation on November 9-16, 2010 conducted an expert poll “Ukraine on the eve of Ukraine-EU Summit: experts”. The purpose of the survey was to find out the opinion of experts on the prospects of revival of European integration of Ukraine as a result of the EU-Ukraine-Summit on November 22, 2010. A total of 39 experts were interviewed. The survey was attended by the President of the Polissya Foundation Gennady Maxak.

Here are some results of the expert survey:
· The vast majority of experts (33) were convinced that the EU-Ukraine Summit would not be the impetus to strengthen Ukraine’s European integration, which would continue to remain at the level of political declarations. Only 2 experts believed that the summit would be more productive than the previous ones.

· Most of the experts (35) believed that the EU-Ukraine Summit would not have signed an agreement to create a free trade area. One expert expressed the opinion that the agreement would still be signed.

· Experts considered the main reasons for not signing the agreement on the establishment of a free trade area. In addition, the experts pointed to the incompleteness of the negotiation process to harmonize the specific terms of the agreement, the unwillingness of both Ukraine and the EU before the signing of the agreement, as well as the influence of Russia. Two experts noted that the Free Trade Area Agreement is an integral part of the Association Agreement, so it cannot be signed separately from it.

· Most of the experts (29) were inclined to believe that Ukraine would not receive an action plan to introduce a visa-free regime at the EU-Ukraine summit. At the same time, 22 experts were convinced that Ukraine would provide a plan before the 2012 European Football Championship, and several (7) experts have suggested that Ukraine would not receive a plan in the near future.

· Experts have evaluated differently when Ukraine and the EU will sign the Association Agreement. The relative majority of experts (16) suggested that the agreement would be signed within the next 2-5 years, the rest (13) had a hope that it would happen in the next year or two, and some of the experts (8) believed that it should be expected 5-10 years. According to one expert, such an association agreement is not required at all.

· Experts have very negatively assessed the level of awareness of the population of Ukraine about the EU. The vast majority of them (36) believes that it is unsatisfactory or completely zero, and only 3 experts called it satisfactory.

· Experts have skeptically evaluated the prospects for Ukraine’s membership in the EU. Most of them believe that Ukraine will become a member of the EU in only 10 or 15 years, the smaller part (8) is convinced that it will happen in the distant future, and several (4) experts do not believe that it will happen at least ever. No expert made a forecast for Ukraine’s accession to the EU in the next 5 years.

List of experts

1. Barantseva K.
2. Berezovets T.
3.Beliter N.
4.Ekeschkin I.
5. Vyshnyak O.
6. Vinnikov O.
7.GANA O.
8.Holubovskaya – Onisimova A.
9.Honchar M.
10. Humeniuk V.
11. Jerge S.
12. Zhdanov and
13. Zamyatin V.
14. Kohut I.
15. Kokoshinsky O.
16. Kononchuk S.
17. Krupnik A.
18. Maxak G.
19. Moskalenko O.
20. Paliy O.
21. Pashkov M.
22. Popov I.
23. Potekhin O.
24. Poluyko V.
25. Privatsky I.
26. Podluska I.
27. Solonenko I.
28. Stoyakin V.
29. Sushko O.
30. Timkiv Ya.
31. Todorov I.
32. Tracevich T.
33. Rybachenko V.
34. Fomushkin
35. Yakimenko Y.
36. Yanchenko A.
37. Tryakina G.
38. Grebenchuk Y.
39. Kolomiets O.